CHIP Score Methodology Whitepaper
Climate Haven Ventures LLC · ClimateHavenProperty.com · Geauga County, Ohio
Contents
01. Executive Summary
02. Methodology Overview
03. Dimension I — Climate Hazard Exposure
04. Dimension II — Geological and Subsurface Stability
05. Dimension III — Municipal Adaptation Velocity
06. Dimension IV — Infrastructure Resilience
07. Dimension V — Migration and Capital Signal
08. Dimension VI — Insurance Market Behavior
09. Hold Horizon Calibration
10. Informal Data Layer
11. Scoring Rubric and Tier Classification
12. Primary Data Sources
13. Versioning and Validation
Legal Notices & Trade Secret Protection
No portion of this document may be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published, licensed, or used to create derivative works without the prior written consent of Climate Haven Ventures LLC. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this work, or any portion thereof, may result in civil and criminal penalties and will be prosecuted to the maximum extent possible under applicable law. The dimensional weighting architecture, sub-factor scoring formulas, and composite aggregation methodology described herein constitute protected trade secrets of Climate Haven Ventures LLC and are not disclosed in this document. Copyright registration of this document does not constitute public disclosure of those proprietary elements.
01 — Executive Summary
The CHIP Score is the first climate resilience scoring system designed explicitly around military family real estate hold
horizons. Where existing models serve insurance underwriters on one-year cycles or institutional investors on ten-year
cycles, the CHIP Score is calibrated for the twenty-year military career geography — multiple PCS cycles, rental conversion
scenarios, and eventual retirement anchor decisions.
Every data source incorporated is publicly available. The proprietary value is the synthesis: a single interpretive framework
that collapses complexity into an actionable signal for a non-specialist making a consequential geography decision under
time pressure.
The methodology draws on six weighted dimensions: climate hazard exposure, geological and subsurface stability,
municipal adaptation velocity, infrastructure resilience, migration and capital signal, and insurance market behavior. A
seventh informal data layer incorporates leading indicators not captured by conventional datasets.
We score what the ground is made of, not just what falls on it.
Audience specificity — calibrated for military hold horizons, not insurance or institutional cycles.
Synthesis as product — public data organized by a proprietary interpretive framework.
Geological depth — subsurface stability variables absent from all competing consumer models.
Adaptive velocity — municipal action scored alongside passive risk, a category created by Climate Haven Ventures LLC.
Forward signal — insurance carrier withdrawal and informal leading indicators not present in any competing framework.
02 — Methodology Overview
The CHIP Score is expressed as a composite integer between 0 and 100. Six primary dimensions are evaluated and
synthesized to reflect their relative predictive value for long-horizon military real estate decisions. An informal data layer
provides qualitative adjustment within a bounded proprietary range. Dimensional weighting is proprietary to Climate Haven
Ventures LLC and is not disclosed publicly.
Six Scoring Dimensions
Dimension I — Climate Hazard Exposure
Physical risk from climate-driven hazards across a twenty-year forward horizon.
Dimension II — Geological and Subsurface Stability
Structural and substrate risk factors absent from all competing consumer models.
Dimension III — Municipal Adaptation Velocity
Forward governance quality and pace of climate adaptation investment.
Dimension IV — Infrastructure Resilience
Systems habitability under increasing climate stress.
Dimension V — Migration and Capital Signal
Population movement and builder capital allocation as leading market indicators.
Dimension VI — Insurance Market Behavior
Carrier withdrawal patterns and premium trajectory as forward risk signals.
Dimensional weightings, sub-factor scoring formulas, and composite aggregation methodology are proprietary to Climate Haven Ventures, LLC and constitute protected trade secrets. This document describes the framework's inputs and analytical rationale. It does not disclose the weighting architecture underlying the composite score.
03 — Dimension I: Climate Hazard Exposure
This dimension assesses the direct physical risk a market faces from climate-driven hazards across a twenty-year forward
horizon. Unlike insurance models that price current-year exposure, CHIP Score climate hazard scoring weights projected
trajectory as heavily as present-day risk. Both current exposure and twenty-year projected trajectory are evaluated.
Flood Risk — Current and Projected
FEMA FIRM data cross-referenced with First Street Foundation flood factor projections. FEMA maps alone are insufficient
— they reflect historical patterns, not climate-adjusted futures. Both current exposure and twenty-year projected trajectory
are evaluated.
Wildfire Exposure
USFS wildfire hazard potential maps combined with wildland-urban interface growth projections. Scores penalize markets
with expanding WUI boundaries regardless of current ignition history.
Extreme Heat Trajectory
NOAA Climate Normals baseline combined with IPCC scenario projections for days above 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Urban
heat island intensity scored separately under Dimension IV.
Severe Storm and Tornado Exposure
NOAA storm event database — frequency and intensity trend analysis. Markets with increasing severe event frequency
receive trajectory penalty regardless of absolute risk level.
Sea Level and Coastal Surge
NOAA sea level change technical report combined with USACE coastal vulnerability index. Applies to coastal and estuarine
markets within a fifty-mile coastal corridor.
04 — Dimension II: Geological and Subsurface Stability
Proprietary differentiator — absent from all competing consumer frameworks.
This dimension is the CHIP Score's most distinctive methodological contribution. No competing consumer-facing real estate
risk model systematically incorporates subsurface geological variables. The premise: climate risk is often expressed through
the ground as much as through the atmosphere.
Markets built on unstable, reactive, or subsiding substrate face compounding structural risk as precipitation intensity,
drought cycles, and groundwater dynamics shift under climate change. A high climate hazard score in a market with
competent bedrock and stable soils may still score well overall. A low hazard market with expansive clay or karst
topography may score poorly.
Liquefaction Susceptibility
USGS liquefaction susceptibility maps by county and ZIP. Markets with moderate to high susceptibility receive significant
point deductions. Liquefaction risk is both structurally catastrophic and increasingly uninsurable.
Soil Composition — Expansive Clay
NRCS Web Soil Survey shrink-swell potential ratings. Expansive clay soils respond dramatically to moisture variation,
causing foundation movement and structural cracking with increasing frequency as precipitation patterns shift.
Karst Topography and Sinkhole Risk
State geological survey karst mapping combined with USGS karst interest group data. Limestone-heavy regions across
Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, and Pennsylvania receive karst risk scoring.
Subsidence Mapping
USGS InSAR satellite-derived subsidence data. Markets experiencing measurable ground sinking — driven by groundwater
extraction, soil compaction, or organic matter decomposition — are penalized regardless of surface-level climate risk
scores.
Alluvial Plain Positioning
Historical geological survey data identifying markets built on ancient floodplain deposits. These markets carry embedded
structural and flood risk not reflected in current FEMA flood zone designations.
Bedrock Depth and Stability
State geological surveys and USGS bedrock depth data. Shallow competent bedrock correlates with structural longevity and
lower climate stress vulnerability across long hold horizons.
05 — Dimension III: Municipal Adaptation Velocity
Category created by Climate Haven Ventures LLC.
Every competing model scores what could go wrong. This dimension scores what a city is actively doing about it. Municipal
adaptation velocity measures the pace and quality of a city's investment in long-term climate resilience infrastructure — a
forward-looking governance signal absent from all competing consumer real estate frameworks.
A city with elevated climate hazard scores but aggressive, well-funded adaptation investment may represent a superior
twenty-year hold position versus a lower-hazard city taking no adaptive action. The CHIP Score is the only methodology that
captures this distinction.
Green Infrastructure Investment
EPA green infrastructure program participation, bioswale installation rates, permeable surface coverage expansion, and
urban stormwater retrofit capital allocation from municipal budget documents.
Urban Tree Canopy Programs
USDA Urban and Community Forestry program participation combined with municipal canopy coverage change data.
Canopy expansion correlates with heat island mitigation, stormwater management, and long-term air quality improvement.
Biochar and Soil Amendment Programs
Municipal composting, biochar soil amendment, and regenerative urban agriculture programs — a leading indicator of
climate governance sophistication rarely captured in conventional scoring systems.
Managed Retreat and Land Use Policy
Municipal zoning changes, buyout programs in flood-prone areas, and building code updates reflecting forward climate
projections. Cities proactively restructuring land use receive significant positive scoring.
Climate Action Plan Quality
Municipal climate action plan assessment: existence, specificity, funding allocation, and implementation milestone tracking.
Plans without implementation budgets receive minimal credit.
Stormwater Infrastructure Capital Budget
Annual municipal budget allocation toward stormwater system upgrade and expansion — directly predictive of a city's
capacity to manage increasing precipitation intensity events.
06 — Dimension IV: Infrastructure Resilience
Physical and utility infrastructure determines a market's functional resilience under climate stress. Markets with aging or
undercapitalized infrastructure face compounding risk as extreme weather events increase in frequency and intensity. This
dimension scores the systems that keep a market habitable.
Electric Grid Reliability
EIA Form 861 outage frequency and duration by utility service area. Markets served by unreliable grids under increasing
heat stress carry compounding habitability risk — particularly relevant for military families with medical and operational
equipment dependencies.
Water System Quality and Capacity
EPA Safe Drinking Water Information System violation history by utility. Lead pipe exposure, PFAS contamination status,
treatment capacity gaps, and source water vulnerability assessments.
Urban Heat Island Intensity
NASA and NOAA urban heat island data at high spatial resolution. ZIP codes running significantly above regional
temperature averages face compounding energy cost, health, and long-term habitability risk distinct from regional climate
projections.
Bridge and Transportation Infrastructure
FHWA National Bridge Inventory condition scores combined with state DOT pavement condition ratings. Markets with
deteriorating transportation infrastructure face access and evacuation risk under climate stress scenarios.
Wastewater System Capacity
EPA Clean Watersheds Needs Survey combined sewer overflow event data. Undersized wastewater systems fail with
increasing precipitation intensity — a health risk and municipal liability signal that compounds over long hold horizons.
07 — Dimension V: Migration and Capital Signal
Population movement and capital allocation behavior are leading indicators of long-term market trajectory. This dimension
aggregates signals from migration data, builder behavior, and professional service concentration to identify markets gaining
or losing long-horizon confidence.
IRS Migration Data
Annual IRS county-to-county migration patterns derived from tax return address changes. Sustained net outmigration is a
leading indicator of climate stress perception that precedes price correction by three to seven years in historically analyzed
markets.
Builder Capital Allocation
US Census Bureau building permit data by county cross-referenced with builder reputation tiers. Quality builder speculative
construction is a forward-looking five-year climate confidence signal. Distressed opportunism is evaluated unfavorably.
Moving Truck Pricing Signal
One-way rental pricing asymmetry from major moving truck providers. This informal, publicly visible signal reflects real-time
migration supply and demand dynamics that precede official demographic data by twelve to eighteen months.
Professional Service Concentration
Real estate attorney and title company density growth by ZIP — a leading indicator of transaction volume acceleration
visible before price data reflects market momentum.
Institutional Capital Posture
Publicly disclosed institutional real estate investment allocation and withdrawal patterns in target markets. Institutional exit
from a market precedes retail price softening.
08 — Dimension VI: Insurance Market Behavior
Most predictive forward signal in the CHIP Score framework.
Insurance carrier behavior is the single most predictive forward signal available in publicly accessible data. When major
carriers withdraw from a market, they are not reacting to current risk — they are pricing future uninsurability. This signal
precedes consumer awareness by three to ten years and is buried in state insurance commissioner regulatory filings that no
consumer-facing real estate platform currently mines systematically.
Carrier Withdrawal Patterns
State insurance commissioner filings for market withdrawal and non-renewal notices by carrier and ZIP code. Tier-1 carrier
exit from a residential market is the most significant negative signal evaluated in this dimension.
Premium Trajectory
Year-over-year homeowner insurance premium change by county and ZIP, sourced from state commissioner rate filing
data. Markets experiencing rapid premium escalation face compounding affordability and liquidity risk.
Non-Renewal Rate by ZIP
Aggregate non-renewal rates by ZIP code where available through state regulatory disclosure. ZIP-level non-renewal
concentration is a more precise signal than county-level premium data.
Residual Market Growth
State FAIR Plan enrollment growth by county— a direct indicator of private market retreat and future coverage cost
escalation.
09 — Hold Horizon Calibration
The defining methodological differentiator.
Existing climate risk frameworks are implicitly calibrated for their primary customers. Insurance models optimize for
one-year actuarial horizons. Institutional real estate models optimize for seven to ten-year fund cycles. The CHIP Score is
the first framework explicitly calibrated for the twenty-year military career real estate arc.
This calibration changes variable weights fundamentally. A flood event with a one-in-fifty-year historical frequency is a
relatively minor actuarial concern on a one-year insurance horizon. On a twenty-year hold horizon with compounding
climate trajectory, it becomes a near-certain exposure event that must be weighted accordingly.
Hold Scenarios and Primary CHIP Concerns
Single PCS Purchase — 2 to 3 Years
Primary concern: liquidity and rental convertibility at exit.
Multi-PCS Rental Hold — 6 to 10 Years
Primary concern: tenant demand durability across climate trajectory.
Transitional Anchor Buy — 10 to 15 Years
Primary concern: insurance trajectory and municipal adaptation quality.
Military Retirement Settlement — 20 to 30 Years
Primary concern: full spectrum evaluation across all six dimensions.
Generational Asset — 30 or More Years
Primary concern: geological stability and municipal governance quality.
10 — Informal Data Layer
Qualitative adjustment layer — bounded proprietary range.
The informal data layer captures leading indicators that precede formal dataset updates by twelve to thirty-six months.
These signals require human interpretive judgment and are applied as bounded qualitative adjustments to the quantitative
composite score. This layer represents a meaningful methodological moat — it is inherently difficult to systematize and
requires domain expertise to interpret correctly.
Military Housing Office Intelligence
Ground-truth data on where service members are choosing to buy versus rent within a given duty station market. Housing
office coordinators observe PCS buyer behavior in real time — a hyperlocal signal no satellite dataset captures.
Local Contractor and Builder Behavior
Quality speculative builder activity beyond permit data — sourced through direct market observation, local contractor
networks, and trade publication coverage. Builder reputation tiers are weighted. Distressed opportunism is discounted.
Municipal Budget Deep Reads
Annual city budget document analysis for climate adaptation capital allocation. Line-item budget commitments to
stormwater, forestry, green infrastructure, and resilience programs are more predictive than stated policy positions.
Moving Truck Pricing Asymmetry
Real-time one-way rental price differentials as a migration signal. Consistently expensive outbound pricing indicates net
population pressure not yet visible in official demographic or price data.
Local Media and Regulatory Monitoring
Insurance regulatory filing monitoring, local government meeting coverage, and environmental regulatory action tracking for
target markets — a continuous early warning layer.
11 — Scoring Rubric and Tier Classification
The CHIP Score is expressed as a composite integer between 0 and 100. Markets are classified into five tiers based on
composite score. Tier classification is applied at the ZIP code level where data resolution permits, and at the county level for
markets with insufficient ZIP-level data coverage.
Market reports published by Climate Haven Ventures LLC include both composite score and dimensional breakdown to
enable scenario-specific interpretation.
Tier 1 — Exceptional Haven — Score 80 to 100
Strong buy signal across all hold scenarios. Market demonstrates superior resilience across all six dimensions with no
material watch items.
Tier 2 — Strong Haven — Score 65 to 79
Buy signal for holds of five or more years. Rental conversion economics are favorable. One or more dimensions may carry
moderate watch items.
Tier 3 — Moderate Haven — Score 50 to 64
Conditional buy. Scenario-specific analysis required. Sub-market precision necessary before commitment.
Tier 4 — Climate Transitional — Score 35 to 49
Rent preferred over purchase. Short-hold purchases require a clear exit strategy. VA benefit better deployed in
higher-scoring markets.
Tier 5 — Elevated Risk — Score 0 to 34
Avoid long-horizon commitment. One or more dimensions carry material risk that compounds significantly across military
hold horizons.
12 — Primary Data Sources
USGS National Hazards Science Center — Geology, seismic, landslide, subsidence, liquefaction
USGS National Water Information System — Groundwater depth, aquifer levels, recharge rates
USGS InSAR Program — Satellite-derived land subsidence mapping
NRCS Web Soil Survey — Soil composition, shrink-swell potential, drainage class
NOAA Climate Normals and Projections — Temperature baselines, extreme event frequency, urban heat island data
FEMA National Flood Insurance Program — Flood zone mapping, FIRM data, NFIP claims history
First Street Foundation — Flood factor, fire factor, heat factor projections
EPA EJScreen — Environmental justice and pollution exposure by census tract
EPA Safe Drinking Water Information System — Water system violation history by utility
EPA Clean Watersheds Needs Survey — Stormwater and combined sewer overflow data
EIA Form 861 — Electric utility reliability, outage frequency and duration
FHWA National Bridge Inventory — Bridge condition scores by structure
IRS Statistics of Income — Migration Data — County-to-county population movement
US Census Bureau Building Permits Survey — New construction activity by county
State Insurance Commissioner Filings — Carrier withdrawal, non-renewal, premium rate filings
USDA Urban and Community Forestry Program — Urban tree canopy data and program participation
NASA Earthdata — Surface temperature, land use change, vegetation stress
CDC Social Vulnerability Index — Socioeconomic vulnerability by census tract
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy — Municipal fiscal health and climate adaptation research
13 — Versioning and Validation
The CHIP Score methodology is versioned and date-stamped at every release. All market scores are logged with
methodology version, scoring date, and primary data vintage. This versioning practice serves two functions: internal quality
control and external validation.
As climate events, market corrections, and insurance market developments occur in scored markets, Climate Haven
Ventures, LLC maintains a private validation log tracking the predictive accuracy of prior scores. This log constitutes a
timestamped prediction record that cannot be retroactively manufactured by a later entrant to this category.
Version History
Version 1.0 — Q1 2026
Initial methodology. Five dimensions scored. No geological layer. Insurance market behavior incorporated within
migration dimension.
Version 2.0 — Q3 2026
Geological and subsurface stability added as a standalone dimension. Insurance market behavior elevated to its own
dimension. Informal data layer formally incorporated. Hold horizon calibration explicitly documented. Municipal adaptation
velocity category created and named.
Methodology Update Policy
Methodology updates are issued no more than twice annually to ensure score comparability across markets and reporting
periods. Material methodology changes trigger retroactive rescoring of all active market reports. Each version is
independently archived and date-stamped.
Why Climate Resilience?
We empower military families and veterans with the strategic knowledge needed to secure their properties and futures in a rapidly changing world.
