Cleveland /
Northeast Ohio Q3 CHIP Score

Market Snapshot - 73/100

Why Northeast Ohio matters for climate-resilient capital

The Cleveland–Elyria MSA sits at the intersection of two structural tailwinds: freshwater abundance and coastal climate migration. Lake Erie provides a thermal buffer that moderates extreme heat relative to inland peers, while the broader Great Lakes basin offers a water-secure future unavailable to most Sun Belt and Western markets.

The region has historically underpriced these advantages — that gap is closing.

The market's strengths are institutional: Cleveland Clinic, University Hospitals, Case Western Reserve University, and a cluster of Fortune 500 anchors create employer diversity and income stability that many lower-risk physical markets cannot match. The CHIP Score reflects this balance — the region's headline score is held back by real precipitation and heat exposure, but its adaptation investment and economic durability argue strongly for long-term positioning.

Dimension Scores

Full scoring breakdown

Physical Risk Exposure

Northeast Ohio presents a mixed physical risk profile. The absence of wildfire, hurricane, and sea level rise exposure is a genuine structural advantage over coastal and Sun Belt peers. However, the region faces rising heat stress, intensifying precipitation events, and localized flood risk — all projected to worsen through mid-century. These are manageable risks, not disqualifying ones, but they account for the score ceiling in this dimension.

Near-zero wildfire risk. ClimateCheck rates Cleveland's wildfire exposure at the low end nationally — a meaningful differentiator from Western and parts of Southern markets.

No sea level or hurricane exposure. Great Lakes geography eliminates two of the highest-cost physical risk categories entirely.

Lake Erie thermal buffer. Proximity to Lake Erie moderates summer heat relative to comparable inland Ohio metros, reducing extreme heat day accumulation.

Flood risk is significant and rising. Approximately 19% of buildings carry significant flood risk; First Street projects an 8% increase in at-risk properties through 2050 as precipitation events intensify.

Extreme heat trending upward. Cleveland's 2024 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment identifies extreme heat as a priority hazard, with hottest-day counts projected to keep increasing through 2100.

Air quality remains a persistent challenge. Cleveland ranks among the nation's top asthma markets — 7th highest asthma rate nationally — tied to air quality and industrial legacy.

Physical risk is Cleveland's relative weakness in the CHIP Score — but "relative" is the operative word. A 16/25 here still outperforms Miami, Phoenix, or Los Angeles on composite risk exposure. The story is what's absent: no wildfire, no hurricane, no sea level rise.

Municipal Adaptation Investment

"Is the city actually doing something about it?"

This is Cleveland's standout dimension — and the one that most validates the CHIP Score's core thesis. The city and Cuyahoga County have built an adaptation infrastructure that rivals much larger coastal metros, earning international recognition while investing in the unglamorous work of bioswales, tree canopy, and stormwater management that actually protects property values.

CDP Cities A-List 2025. Cleveland is one of 112 cities worldwide on the 2025 CDP Cities A List, recognized for comprehensive disclosure, mature environmental governance, and meaningful progress toward climate resilience — placing it among the top tier globally.

Third-generation Climate Action Plan. Cleveland's CAP 2025 (active through 2029) is a net-zero-aligned community strategy covering nature-based solutions, clean transportation, and resilient communities. Paired with the Municipal Action Plan (MAP 2025) for city operations.

Global Covenant of Mayors compliant. Full compliance with the GCoM framework connects Cleveland to the world's largest coalition of city climate leaders and associated climate finance channels.

Active urban tree canopy program. Cleveland Tree Coalition, Cuyahoga County Healthy Urban Tree Canopy grants (4+ years running), and a dedicated Urban Forestry Commission provide structured canopy investment with LiDAR-tracked progress.

Green infrastructure active at street level. Documented bioswale installation (E. 75th and Dell Ave. cited as an active example), EPA Green Infrastructure alignment, and city open data tracking of environmental metrics.

Zero natural disasters 2018–2022. Team NEO data confirms zero recorded natural disasters in this period — a striking data point for institutional investors with low-risk tolerance.

Biochar/soil amendment programming. Not yet documented at the city level; this sub-score remains unseated and represents upside as regional agricultural and urban programs develop.

A-List CDP status means Cleveland is taking four times as many mitigation and adaptation measures as non-A-List cities. This is the institutional signal that underwrites the entire CHIP Score argument for this market.

Economic Resilience

"Can I sustain a mortgage here if the market shifts?"

The Greater Cleveland economy is in a genuine productivity-led expansion — growing stronger per worker even as raw population growth remains modest. The anchor-institution base (Cleveland Clinic, University Hospitals, KeyBank, Sherwin-Williams, Parker Hannifin) provides employer durability that weather cycles poorly. The 2026 labor force reached its highest level since 2009, and the region's 100 largest employers grew headcount 3.6% from 2024 to 2025.

Labor force at historic highs. July 2025 Greater Cleveland labor force of 1,154,372 — the highest since 2009 — with employed population at its highest since 2006.

Healthcare anchor strength. Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals together constitute one of the largest integrated health systems in the U.S., driving biomedical research jobs and international patient revenue that insulate the local economy from cyclical downturns.

Employer diversity is real. Finance, advanced manufacturing, healthcare, higher education, and emerging tech all present — not a single-industry market. AgileBlue, MediView XR, and ZIN Technologies signal tech-sector emergence.

Gen Z homebuying destination. Greater Cleveland ranked as one of the most popular cities nationally for Gen Z homebuyers — indicating a demand cohort forming that will shape the market for the next decade.

GDP growth trails national pace. NEO GDP projected to grow 8% from 2025–2030 vs. 11.6% nationally. The region outperforms on productivity per worker but lags on aggregate output growth — a talent-attraction challenge acknowledged by Team NEO's April 2026 report.

Population growth remains subdued. Net migration inflows from climate-risk coastal markets have begun (modest Census upticks 2023–2024) but have not yet translated into the structural population growth that would fully validate the climate migration thesis for this market.

Housing Market Stability

"Can I sell this if I need to?"

Cleveland's housing market is the platform's clearest investment opportunity signal. Entry prices 60% below the national median with steady 5–6% annual appreciation, a sub-1-month supply environment, and an intact insurance market — with zero exposure to the insurer withdrawal crisis hitting Florida, California, and parts of the Gulf Coast — combine into a risk-adjusted proposition that is exceptionally rare in 2026.

Median home price: $142K. Redfin Q2 2026 data puts median sale price at $142K — up 5.9% YoY — at roughly 60% below the national median. Entry barriers are minimal relative to income levels.
Seller's market with sub-1-month supply. 0.97 months of supply as of mid-2026; homes selling at 98% of asking price in 33 days on average. Demand is real and sustained.
Insurance market fully intact. Ohio has not seen major insurer withdrawal. No State Farm, Allstate, or Farmers exits. Homeowners insurance remains competitively priced and broadly available — a structural advantage increasingly rare nationally.
No climate discount observable in comps. Unlike coastal Florida or California fire-zone markets, Cleveland sale prices show no measurable climate risk haircut in current transaction data.
Strong cash flow characteristics. The combination of low acquisition cost and solid regional rents creates investor cash flow dynamics unavailable in most major metros — a driver of sustained investor demand.
Appreciation pace is measured. Zillow projects ~2.8% appreciation through late 2026 — healthy and sustainable, not speculative. Investors should underwrite stable yield over price-appreciation plays.

The insurance market stability alone moves Cleveland ahead of dozens of higher-profile markets in 2026. This is the canary metric — and in Cleveland, the canary is singing.

Social Infrastructure & Governance Quality

"Will this place attract and keep good neighbors?"

Cleveland's healthcare infrastructure is among the strongest of any metro its size in the country — a direct function of the Clinic and University Hospitals anchor presence. Civic governance quality, measured by climate action follow-through and institutional investment, is excellent. Urban school quality remains an area of ongoing challenge, but the broader county-level education ecosystem (Case Western, John Carroll, Baldwin Wallace) provides strong workforce development depth.

World-class healthcare access. Cleveland Clinic consistently ranks among the top hospital systems globally. For climate migration decision-makers, healthcare proximity is a primary relocation factor — Cleveland is a genuine asset here.

Strong civic governance follow-through. CDP A-List achievement, three-generation climate action planning, and ICLEI membership all signal a local government that executes on commitments rather than issuing plans without implementation.

Higher education density. Case Western Reserve, Cleveland State, John Carroll, and Baldwin Wallace create a continuous talent pipeline and community of institutional stability that anchors neighborhood quality in key corridors.

$9B in downtown investment. Sustained capital investment in Cleveland's core signals long-term public and private confidence in the market's trajectory.

Urban school quality uneven. Cleveland Metropolitan School District performance remains below state and national averages — a meaningful consideration for family relocation decisions within the city limits, though suburban district quality is significantly stronger.

What a 73 means for capital deployment

A CHIP Score of 73 positions Cleveland/NEO as a high-conviction Tier 2 climate haven market — one with genuine structural advantages and a clear institutional adaptation story, but with physical risk factors that require property-level due diligence, particularly around flood exposure in specific ZIP codes and neighborhoods.

The market is most compelling for long-horizon investors who are underwriting a 10–20 year hold and want to avoid the insurance withdrawal, climate discount, and lender tightening dynamics now visible in Florida, coastal California, and parts of the Gulf Coast. At $142K median, the absolute risk is also inherently bounded in ways that $1M+ coastal markets are not.

The insurance market stability is the clearest near-term signal. When Ohio remains intact while Florida and California markets face carrier exits, the relative risk premium embedded in coastal home prices will continue to compress — and Great Lakes markets will continue to reprice upward. That process is already underway in the transaction data.

The CHIP Score is not a growth forecast. It is a resilience signal. Cleveland earns a 73 because it is structurally positioned to hold its value premise under climate stress — not because it will outperform on price appreciation. Those are different arguments. Both may be true.

How this score was constructed | Scoring basis

The Cleveland/NEO score reflects data current as of Q3 2026. Dynamic layer data (housing market, economic indicators, climate risk scores) will be refreshed quarterly. Static anchor frameworks (IPCC AR6, TCFD, FEMA FIRM) anchor the scoring criteria on an annual basis.

Physical Risk sub-scores draw from ClimateCheck city-level data, First Street Foundation flood projections, NOAA regional climate data, and the City of Cleveland's 2024 Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment. Municipal Adaptation scoring is anchored by CDP Cities A-List criteria, ICLEI membership status, and active program documentation from city and county sustainability offices. Economic Resilience draws from BLS LAUS, Team NEO regional projections (Moody's/Lightcast basis), and Huntington Bank's regional economic forecast. Housing Market Stability uses Redfin, Zillow, and Houzeo transaction data cross-referenced against Ohio Department of Insurance market health. Social Infrastructure applies CDC Social Vulnerability Index county data and Robert Wood Johnson County Health Rankings.

Cleveland / Northeast Ohio Q3 CHIP Score